@article{
doi:10.1073/pnas.2620362123,
author = {Stéphanie Jenouvrier  and Jimmy Garnier  and Marika Holland  and Joanie van de Walle  and Samantha C. Patrick  and Timothée Bonnet  and Karine Delord  and Francesco Ventura  and Christophe Barbraud  and Henri Weimerskirch },
title = {Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {123},
number = {39},
pages = {e2620362123},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2620362123},
URL = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2620362123},
eprint = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2620362123},
abstract = {Can species evolve fast enough to avoid extinction under climate change? We developed an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework integrating quantitative genetics, demography, and climate projections to address this question in a long-lived seabird. By examining morphological, behavioral, and phenological traits affecting different life-cycle stages, we show that adaptive evolution increased population growth under historical climates but failed to prevent decline under projected warming. Limiting global warming through greenhouse gas reductions reduced extinction risk more than evolutionary adaptation. Evolutionary rescue—the prevention of extinction through adaptation—occurred only when climate change strengthened selection on a trait affecting juvenile survival. Combined with evidence from other taxa, our findings suggest that evolutionary adaptation alone is unlikely to reduce extinction risk under rapid climate change. Evolutionary rescue–the process by which adaptive evolution prevents population extinction following environmental deterioration –is frequently proposed as a buffer against biodiversity loss under climate change, yet its capacity to alter future population trajectories is rarely assessed quantitatively. Most forecasts of evolutionary rescue rely on simplified demographic models, focus on a single adaptive trait, and explore hypothetical environmental scenarios rather than standardized climate pathways, neglecting uncertainty from demographic and internal climate variability. We developed a hyperstate eco-evolutionary population model coupled with large ensembles of climate projections from global climate models to test whether evolutionary adaptation or climate mitigation (through reduced greenhouse gas emissions) can prevent declines in a threatened seabird, the black-browed albatross. We parameterized this framework using three decades of demographic and phenotypic data, while propagating uncertainty from demographic processes and natural climate variability in climate projections. We modeled selection on morphological, behavioral, and phenological traits affecting different life-cycle components across climate scenarios. Across climate scenarios, evolution increased population size under stationary historical climates but failed to prevent decline under projected warming. Increasing heritability had little effect on extinction risk, whereas climate mitigation reduced extinction probability by approximately half. Evolutionary rescue occurred only under the most optimistic climate scenario when climate change directly strengthened selection on wing length, a trait affecting juvenile survival. Our results reveal limits to evolutionary rescue under environmental change.}}